Gartner August 2010 mobile OS forecasts

Apple 2.0 writer Philip Elmer-DeWitt asks “who can Bury Whom?” It’s the question that is appropriate but there is no answer that is easy. Weekly ago, Gartner and IDC circulated forecasts which is often apparently non-congruent mobile systems that are working futures. Whom should you imagine? Gartner, IDC or Microsoft?

Windows Phone 7’s release to manufacturing, which the funeral that is mock, is Microsoft’s bold assault to recover lost territory. Before Apple released the iPhone in 2007, Windows Mobile’s share of the market trailed only Symbian that is giant June. Fast ahead to 2010, and Microsoft’s mobile OS is # 5, whether measured by smartphones or all devices, according to Gartner. Can Microsoft market that is retaken territory captured by upstarts Apple and Google?

We’ll affirmatively say “maybe a little,” although in a past post I firmly asserted that “Windows Phone 7 is merely a lost cause.” Merely place: “Microsoft’s problem is more about timing than strategy — or technology.” I stay unhopeful about Windows Phone 7’s future, but also recognize that the device that is mobile is powerful and quickly changing. Much depends upon exactly how Microsoft executes, specially along with the advertising. We hold out hope because of just exactly how good are Microsoft’s Bing, Internet Explorer 8 and Windows 7 advertising promotions. As such, I look cautiously at the Gartner and IDC forecasts.

Evaluating Mobile Forecasts by the Figures

The Gartner forecast is the more chilling for Microsoft:

The analyst firm reports and forecasts product that is actual — not shipments to carriers or dealers — providing you with a much more accurate viewpoint of the real-time market that is mobile.

The forecast, through 2014, covers all operating that is mobile — not merely smartphones.
Gartner all but disregards Microsoft’s mobile OS, which market that is global is forecast to decrease to 3.9 per cent in four years.
Gartner claims that Android are second simply to Symbian in mobile OS share of the market — based on sales — this year. By 2014, Symbian and Android is supposed to be near — even with 30.2 % and 29.6 percent share, respectively. The 2 so-called “open” mobile operating systems would command about 60 percent market share.

With respect to Symbian’s future, Gartner’s forecast is the most damning to date. But it is worse for Microsoft’s mobile operating system. “The worldwide mobile OS marketplace is dominated by four players: Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS,” Roberta Cozza, Gartner research that is principal, asserted in a statement. She predicts that the “OS space shall combine around a few key OS providers,” and she doesn’t consist of Microsoft as certainly one of them. Gartner puts Microsoft’s mobile OS No. 6 in 2014, behind — gasp — Meego, which has market share today that is negligible. Intel and Nokia are codeveloping Meego.

Share of the market is but one measure. Unit shipments is another. Gartner sees Windows Phone OS shipments little a lot more than doubling in the forecast period (2009-2014) — from 15 million to 34.5 million devices. In contrast, Android deliveries will rise to 259 million from 6.8 million units.

IDC’s forecast, also through 2014, is for smartphones, and it holds slim glimmers of hope for Microsoft:

The analyst company asserts the market that is smartphone “comfortably help up to five OS players,” which will consist of Microsoft.
On smart phones, Microsoft’s mobile OS will develop 43.3 % through 2014, with share rising to nearly 10 percent.
Apple’s iOS share shall fall to within 1.1 % of Microsoft’s mobile OS in 2014.
Neither of these forecasts is specially hopeful for Windows Phone 7, which circles back to the “Who will bury whom?” question. One answer: Analysts are burying Windows Phone 7. But would be the epitaphs premature?

Some Facets Which Could Affect Handset Sales

There are lots of elements which are mitigating most likely will influence just who wins, if any person, the device OS conflicts. Among them:

  1. Microsoft traditionally does its work this is certainly most useful whenever pushed into a place. If CEO Steve Ballmer is happy to really spend money on Windows Phone 7 marketing, there’s however the opportunity. Verizon’s $100 million promotion giving support to the Droid launch performed magic for Android — that and also the later sales that are 2-for-1. State, Microsoft, what about a xbox this is certainly unique bundle with free Windows Phone 7 for Christmas consumers? Limited Edition showing down Xbox video gaming on both devices.
  2. Apple has actually yet to completely touch its most market this is certainly potentially profitable the United States. Single-carrier distribution hampers development, particularly if Android or BlackBerry OS are available on devices from all companies that are significant. The termination of exclusivity right here as well as in some other nations will unlock need that is pent-up iPhone.
  3. Nokia is getting a CEO this is certainly new Elop, on September 21; the announcement emerged after Gartner and IDC completed their forecasts. Nokia will undergo a change this is certainly dramatic a crucial time period, when much more producers would be adopting Android. Change in management at the executive level could get in either case — slow down Nokia at the time this is certainly wrong result in competitive-changing brand-new innovations and methods within 12 to 1 . 5 years.
  4. Emerging markets’ increasing consumption of attached devices is difficult to precisely predict. 1st 3G communities are only today needs to reach the public in huge development markets like India. Nokia is strategically better positioned than most rivals. Symbian could nevertheless reverse program. During these markets, foolish mobile phones dominate sales, and Nokia features done well bringing smartphone features in their mind. That said, producers are adopting Android for dumb mobile phones, giving Nokia significant competitions in markets this has long ruled.
  5. The killer application for mobile is supposed to be banking/money this is certainly cellular roughly we predict. The feature allows phone that is mobile store/send/receive money in records related to their mobiles, offering banking and payment features to those who otherwise would not utilize commercial banks, particularly in emerging areas. In an August this is certainly early US Department presentation, “Tech@State: Mobile Money and Financial Inclusion,” Maria Otero, Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, noticed that about 5 billion of this earth’s 6.6 billion people have cellular phones. Nevertheless, 1.7 billion cell phone users with low incomes lack lender reports. Mobile cash could alter all that.

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