The coming Java-Linux duopoly

By Rick Lehrbaum
2000-06-03

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In this opinion piece, Ganesh Prasad writes in great detail about a wide range of timely topics. You may, or may not, agree with his assessment of Java as the wave of the future -- but he makes some truly stunning points about the disruptive effects of Open Source, Linux, and the web/Internet on the computing software/hardware establishment.

Prasad writes . . .

"These are my postulates:

The poor performance of Linux stocks in recent times is not an indicator of poor prospects for the Linux OS, but an index of its extremely high value to consumers as opposed to vendors. Spurred by demand, Linux will spread everywhere, first on servers, then on devices, and finally onto desktop systems.
Reports of Java's death have been greatly exaggerated. Java has never been stronger, and in fact, is becoming ubiquitous. Java is strongest on the server, but will make a strong play for the client once more, riding on the backs of browsers supporting Java 2.
The web has obsoleted traditional client/server architectures, and proprietary systems based on them are already old technology. Windows 2000 is a prime example. The web paradigm will speed the adoption of client devices that rely on open, Internet technologies.
The future belongs to Open Standards, and Open Source has made the world safe for Open Standards. There will be no significant proprietary standard left in any industry segment dominated by Open Source.
Open Source products cannot be defeated in the marketplace. They will become market leaders in every major software category in 3-5 years. Most successful devices will run Open Source operating systems and basic Open Source applications like browsers and mail clients.
Intel processors will face increased competition thanks to the hardware-independence of Linux. The price of hardware will fall faster as a result, hastening the advent of affordable devices.
The plummeting cost of hardware, the availability of software at zero cost, the triumph of the web paradigm and the ubiquity of the Java platform will ensure a variety of versatile devices that will be only roughly based on the PC.

Let us analyse each of these predictions in turn."

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