Smartbooks to reach 165 million units in 2015, says study

By Eric Brown
2010-02-23

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ABI Research is projecting that 165 million "smartbooks" will ship in 2015. The secret for success for these non-x86-based, "always on" netbooks and MIDs is to keep the price under $200, says the research group.

Smartbooks exist in the netherworld between the smartphone and high-end netbook markets, also populated by MIDs (mobile internet devices), PMPs (portable media players), UMPCs, tablets, and cut-rate netbooks. According to a new report by ABI Research, 163 million smartbook devices will ship worldwide in 2015, representing "a significant rate of growth given that the very first models only appeared in 2008," says the research firm.

Freescale smartbook tablet reference design with keyboard docking station

Coined by Qualcomm as a term for low-cost netbooks and tablets running on high-end ARM-based processors such as its Snapdragon, the term smartbook was also adopted by Freescale for consumer computing devices based on its ARM Cortex-A8-based i.MX515 system-on-chip (SoC). A good share of the smartbooks announced at CES last month were actually keyboard-free (or in some cases keyboard-optional) tablet designs, such as Freescale's smartbook tablet reference design (pictured above).

Although the vast majority of smartbooks are likely to run ARM processors, ABI's definition is a bit broader, covering a variety of low-powered, non-x86 devices that are always connected via WiFi or 3G. Although the company doesn't mention MIPS, several low-end netbooks such as Cherrypal's "Africa" run on MIPS-based XBurst processors. MIPS is also expanding beyond set-top boxes into a variety of Android-based consumer devices.

Qualcomm and Freescale are leading the smartbook processor market, followed by Texas Instruments and Nvidia, all of them using ARM Cortex-based SoCs, says ABI. Early device vendors include Lenovo, with its Snapdragon-based Skylight (pictured above, left), and Sharp with its i.MX515-based NetWalker PC-Z1 (pictured at right).

ABI doesn't cover operating system share, aside from a mention in the table of contents about a role for Google's Chrome OS, and the potential for a new version of Windows aimed at smartbooks. It should be noted, however, that all of the devices mentioned above run either Linux or Android, which together are widely expected to lead the smartbook market in the near future.

Intel's and Nokia's Maemo/Moblin open source Linux blend, MeeGo, may also be ideally suited for smartbooks. Meanwhile, the ARM-compatible Windows CE may also play a role, and ABI notes that even Apple's ARM-based iPad may be logically be considered a smartbook.

In the end, the smartbook is a rather vague sub-category of products ABI prefers to lump together as Ultra Mobile Devices (UMDs), says the research firm. The smartbook term "doesn't resonate with anybody thinking of buying such a device," according to a statement by ABI Research senior analyst Jeff Orr.

Indeed, in ABI's research, smartbooks appear to be subsets of netbooks and MIDs. In an ABI report from last year, the rise of low-cost ARM-based netbooks (i.e. smartbooks) sold in developing countries was considered to be a chief reason why the research firm projects that Linux will take the lead from Windows in the netbook market by 2013.

If smartbooks are to succeed by any name, says ABI, they must be available for under $200. This should be enabled by extensive competition in the mobile SoC market, suggests the firm.

ABI's smartbook study examines the semiconductor vendors mentioned above, as well as other potential players including Marvell and Samsung. System vendors listed in the table of contents include Always Innovating, Asus, C-motech, Elonex, Haleron Technologies, Lan Yu International, Mobinnova, Nokia, OpenPandora Ltd, Pegatron, Qigi Future Technology, Sharp, Wistron, and WonderMedia Technologies.

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More information on ABI Research's smartbook study, including a table of contents, may be found here.

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